A study on the probability of insertion in middle-class occupations

the role of the productive structure in Brazilian social mobility (2016-2023)

Abstract

structure on the chances of individuals aged 14 and over finding middle-class employment between 2016 and 2023. A secondary objective was to analyze the
evolution of the participation and relative income of this social class during the period of interest. These analyses were conducted using microdata from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNADC) and
the logistic regression model (logit). The main findings indicate that whilethe increase in average per capita household income (RDPC) is positive, it is not a sufficient condition to enable upward social mobility in Brazil.
Among the key factors determining this upward mobility, the following stood out: educational level (especially higher education), sector of activity
(particularly in information technology, communication, professional and administrative services), place of residence (urban areas and the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions), male gender, rental or lease income, and high RDPC. The influence of structural, institutional, familial, and innate factors revealed that social ascension is not solely dependent on
individual effort or merit. These findings also highlight the importance of educational policies, social inclusion, combating discrimination and inequality, and, above all, the active role of the State in promoting positive
structural change that expands the relative participation of dynamic sectors that are intensive in skilled labor, ultimately creating more middleclass occupations